All three ideas are viable business ideas. How much success you could experience from each depends on 1) your strategy, 2) your execution, and 3) your team. Without knowing you, your strengths, and your business skills - it is very difficult to say anything more conclusive.

As all your concepts depend on a membership site, keep in mind that memberships must continuously deliver value and engagement, or people will not stay members for long.

It's also generally easier to sell a program that solves a very clear and specific problem - one that your clients currently feel deeply enough that they are willing to spend $$ to get it solved.

A cheap-simple paper product doesn't sound like it would be worth that much. Easier to get people to part with small amounts of money, but you'll have to sell a squat-load to make any profit (and that increases your costs too). But if you can leverage other resources and focus only on the marketing/sales side (e.g., using a fulfillment resource), you could make this work. But you probably should have some pretty awesome online traffic generating skills.

#2 sounds intriguing, but again, the perceived value of art lessons is relatively low (in general). You would need to establish a powerful motivating message directed toward a potentially lucrative audience. In short, your marketing strategy here is critical. But the content development could be quite simple, so if you master the marketing and have low operational costs, you can make large profit margins.

#3 could have a higher perceived value which can make the marketing message easier, but the content delivery side requires more expertise (e.g., coaching skills, parenting experience, and entrepreneurial expertise all rolled into one). This will be harder to resource (higher operating costs, tougher to staff, etc.), but with the right strategy could also be quite lucrative.

Happy to chat more by phone. I've helped hundreds of people get started with similar businesses....

some may. Consider it a cost of doing business. Try to develop a relationship before the sale so that you can reduce the frequency. Over time, you can learn to estimate your return rate and either adjust pricing accordingly OR develop conditions for refunds. But generally, you'll get more sales from the guarantee than you will return requests. Consider that they are even more nervous that you'll turn out to be unscrupulous character. When you take that fear away, they will be more likely to buy...

You need at least 1 PRIMARY marketing strategy that you can use to ACTIVELY promote your business. Referrals are great, but as a colleague is fond of saying - "referral marketing is just a nice way to say you have no marketing strategy at all". Referrals make other people responsible for generating your leads. That is a recipe for certain struggle.

Instead, you need to start with a message that is a very clear and specific solution that you provide for a very clear and specific audience. Pick ONE solution and ONE audience for your message. The more specific the better. For example, perhaps you promote service to motorcycle crash victims who need help re-learning how to walk. Or stroke victims relearning basic muscle movements. Then look for opportunities to share your message deeper by thinking about where your audience can be found.

There are dozens of ways to get your message out there once you've honed it in sufficient detail. Happy to engage in a conversation for more detail...

Equity should be preserved for something of real value that cannot be achieved otherwise. Equity for a design partner - yes. Equity for a design deliverable - No. The benefit of equity is that the person receiving it becomes invested in the success of the business and will continue to work to help it grow. A graphic design is static - once its delivered the value exchange is complete.